A Statistical Diagnosis of Intersectoral Linkages in the Economies of Germany, Poland, and Slovakia

Abstract

The article provides a statistical diagnosis of the structure of intersectoral linkages in national economies of different scales based on OECD input-output tables using the Chenery – Watanabe method. The relevance of the study is determined by the need for quantitative tools capable not only of classifying sectors by intensity of backward and forward linkages, but also of identifying structural patterns in the formation of production networks in countries with different positions within global value chains. The methodological toolkit is based on estimating two normalized indiсes – backward linkage (BL) and forward linkage (FL) – which ratio allowed for breaking 45 economic sectors into four types: key sectors; sectors with high inverse linkages; sectors with high direct linkages; and sectors with weak linkages. The empirical basis of the study consists of direct requirements matrices for the economies of Germany, Poland and Slovakia, which operate within a common regulatory framework and use a harmonized statistical methodology, yet differ substantially in economic scale, degree of structural diversification, and models of production specialization. The comparative assessment made it possible to identify five structural regularities: a direct relationship between the economic performance and the number of key sectors, declining from 12 in Germany to nine in Poland, and four in Slovakia; the structural asymmetry of small open economies dominated by backward linkages; a stable share of horizontal suppliers in medium- and large-scale economies; an inverse relationship between the economic performance and the share of sectors with weak linkages; and the increased vulnerability of economies with strong forward linkages of the energy sector combined with relatively weak backward linkages. The results can be used in structural diagnosis of national economies and substantiating priorities of economic policies.