Structural and Spatial Imbalances of the Ukrainian Economy in the Conditions of War: A Statistical Assessment
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31767/su.3(106)2024.03.06Keywords:
trends of economic development, regional structure, large-scale war, imbalances of development, statistical assessment, economic activities, defense industry complex, exports of goods, imports of goods.Abstract
The Russian military invasion strokes a heavy blow on the social and economic development of Ukraine, caused a massive loss of human capital, production and non-production assets, disruptions of logistics and economic ties. These devastations and losses resulted in a dramatic structural and spatial transformation of the national economy. The article’s objective is to provide a statistical assessment of the main trends in the economic development of Ukrainian regions in the context of large-scale war. Structural changes in the national economy over 2021–2023 were revealed through an analysis of the gross domestic product indicator in Ukraine. An analysis of dynamic series on the total building area (by residential and non-residential buildings), by construction-in-process and commissioned areas, by Ukrainian region, revealed that the vectors of new constructions shifted toward western (Transcarpathia, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Chernivtsi) and central (Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr) oblasts. The by-industry dynamics of recovery in the Ukrainian manufacturing was analyzed. The challenged faced by metallurgical plants were highlighted. A positive transformation of the national industrial sector toward the increasing share of mechanical engineering in the total industrial output was highlighted. The trends in agricultural sector were shown by analyzing index of agricultural output in plant-growing and animal husbandry. A structural and dynamic assessment of the cultivated areas for agricultural plants in the regions over the time of the great war was made. The shrinking output in the Ukrainian plant-growing was revealed to have a strong correlation with the loss of cultivated areas. A by-region comparison of exports revealed that the domestic export capacities were gradually moving to western and central oblasts of Ukraine. It was found that the Ukrainian exports became increasingly dominated by low-tech goods, with the growing share of high-tech goods in the imports. The latter trend can be explained by the growing needs of the domestic defense industry complex in the product range of the mechanical engineering.
Downloads
References
2. Lunina, I. O., Bilousova, O. S., & Nazukova, N. M. (2023). Stratehichni zavdannia derzhavnoi pidtrymky povoiennoho rozvytku natsionalnoi ekonomiky [Strategic tasks of state support for the post-war development of the national economy]. Statystyka Ukrainy – Statistics of Ukraine, 3–4, 51–66. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31767/su.3-4(102-103)2023.03-04.05 [in Ukrainian].
3. Yehorov, I. Yu., & Kindzerskyy, Yu. V. (Eds.). (2023). Otsinka innovatsiinoho rozvytku ta strukturni transformatsii v ekonomitsi Ukrainy [Evaluation of innovative development and structural transformations in the economy of Ukraine]. Kyiv: NAN Ukrainy, DU “Instytut ekonomiky ta prohnozuvannia NAN Ukrainy”. Retrieved from http://ief.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Otsinka-innovatsijnoho-rozvytku.pdf [in Ukrainian].
4. Kistersky, L. L. (2023). Stratehichni pryntsypy povoiennoho vidnovlennia Ukrainy [Strategic principles of Ukraine’s post-war recovery]. Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 2 (735), 3–16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2023.02.003 [in Ukrainian].
5. Ishchuk, S. O. (2023). Ekonomika rehioniv Ukrainy v umovakh povnomasshtabnoi viiny: novitni tendentsii [The economy of the regions of Ukraine in the conditions of a full-scale war: the latest trends]. Ekonomichnyi chasopys Volynskoho natsionalnoho universytetu imeni Lesi Ukrainky – Economic Journal of Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, 3 (35), 24–33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29038/2786-4618-2023-03-24-33 [in Ukrainian].
6. Valovyi vnutrishnii produkt u faktychnykh tsinakh [Gross domestic product at current prices]. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved July 19, 2024 from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2003/vvp/vvp_kv/vvp_kv_u/arh_vvp_kv.html [in Ukrainian].
7. Zahalna ploshcha zhytlovykh budivel na pochatok budivnytstva za vydamy, po rehionakh [The total area of residential buildings at the start of building by type by regions]. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved August 11, 2024 from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2023/bud/kzpb_reg/arh_kzpb_reg2023_u.htm [in Ukrainian].
8. Zahalna ploshcha nezhytlovykh budivel na pochatok budivnytstva za vydamy, po rehionakh [The total area of non-residential buildings at the start of building by type by region]. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved August 11, 2024 from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2023/bud/kzp_reg/arh_nkzp_reg2023_u.htm [in Ukrainian].
9. Zahalna ploshcha zhytlovykh budivel, pryinyatykh v ekspluatatsiiu, za vydamy, po rehionakh [The total area of residential buildings putting into service, by type, by region]. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved August 11, 2024 from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2023/bud/kzpb_reg/arh_kzpb_reg2023_u.htm [in Ukrainian].
10. Zahalna ploshcha nezhytlovykh budivel, pryinyatykh v ekspluatatsiiu, za vydamy, po rehionakh [The total area of non-residential buildings, putting into service, by type by region]. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved August 11, 2024 from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2023/bud/kzp_reg/arh_nkzp_reg2023_u.htm [in Ukrainian].
11. Obsiah realizovanoi promyslovoi produktsii za vydamy diialnosti [Volume of industrial products sold, by types of activity]. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved August 13, 2024 from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/pr/orp/orp_u/arh_orp_u.html [in Ukrainian].
12. Himmelfarb, A. (Ed.). (February 2024). Ukraine third rapid damage and needs assessment. RDNA3. February 2022 – December 2023. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications. Retrieved July 12, 2024 from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099021324115085807/pdf/P1801741bea12c012189ca16d95d8c2556a.pdf
13. FAO Country Profiles: Ukraine. www.fao.org. Retrieved July 29, 2024 from https://www.fao.org/countryprofiles/index/en/?iso3=UKR
14. Indeks silskohospodarskoi produktsii [Index of agricultural products]. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved July 12, 2024 from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2020/sg/sg_rik/arch_iosv.htm [in Ukrainian].
15. Ploshchi, valovi zbory ta urozhainist silskohospodarskykh kultur za yikh vydamy ta po rehionakh [Areas, gross harvests and productivity of agricultural crops by their types and by regions]. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved August 23, 2024 from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2022/sg/pvzu/arch_pvxu_reg.htm [in Ukrainian].
16. Rehionalni obsiahy zovnishnoi torhivli tovaramy [Regional volumes of foreign trade in goods]. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved August 23, 2024 from https://ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2024/zd/oet/arh_oet2024_u.html [in Ukrainian].
17. Derzhavna mytna sluzhba Ukrainy. Ofitsiinyi sait [Official website of the State Customs Service of Ukraine]. customs.gov.ua. Retrieved from https://customs.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
