Статистичне оцінювання сучасних демографічних втрат в Україні
Ключові слова:
гіпотетичні демографічні втрати, режим смертності, репродуктивний потенціал, короткостроковий прогноз, очікувана чисельність населенняАнотація
Зроблено спробу оцінити демографічні наслідки анексії Криму, зокрема розміри реальних та очікуваних демографічних втрат в Україні у короткостроковій перспективі. З цією метою використано статистичні методи моделювання і прогнозування, а також когортно-компонентний метод.
Завантаження
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Посилання
1. Romaniuk, А., & Gladun, О. (2015). Demographic trends in Ukraine: Past, Present and Future. Population and Development Review, 41, 2, pp. 315-337 (in English).
2. Kulchytskyi, S. & Maksudov, S. (1991). Vtraty naselennia Ukrainy vid holodu 1933 r. [Population losses of Ukraine due to the 1933 famine]. Ukrainskyi Istorychnyi Zhurnal - Ukrainian HistoricalJournal, 2, pp. 2-12 (in Ukrainian).
3. Maksudov, S. (1992). Otsinka vtrat naselennia Ukrainy v roky kolektyvizatsii [Estimation of population losses of Ukraine in the years of collectivization]. Philosofska і sotsiolohichna durnka - Philosophical and sociological thought, 4, pp. 118-131. (in Ukrainian).
4. Konkvest, R. (1993). Zhnyva skorboty. Radianska kolektyvizatsiia і holodomor [The Harvest of Sorrow: Soviet Collectivisation and the Terror-Famine]. Kyiv: Lybid (in Ukrainian).
5. Mesle, E, Vallin, J., Shkolnikov, V, Pyroshkov, S., & Adamets, S. (2008). Smertnist taprychyny smerti v Ukraini и XXstolitti [Mortality and deaths by causes in Ukraine on XX century]. Kyiv: Vydavnychyi dim “Stylos” (in Ukrainian).
6. Andreev, E. M., Bohoiavlenskii, D. D., Vishnevskii, A. H., Zakharov, S. V, & Kharkova, T. L. (2006). Demohrafycheskye katastrofy XX veka. [Demographics catastrophes of XX century]. Dernohrafycheskaia modernyzatsyia Rossii, 1900-2000 [Demographic modernization of Russia, 1900-2000]. A. H.Vishnevskii (Ed.). Moscow: Novoe izdatelstvo. Pp. 339- 447 (in Russian).
7. Denysenko, M. (2008). Demohrafycheskii kryzys v SSSR v pervoi polovine 1930-kh hodov: otsenky poter i problemy izucheniia [Demographic crisis in USSR during the first part of f930 years: estimations of losses and the problems of studies]. Istoricheskaia demohrafiia: Sb. Statei - Historical demography: Collected papers. Moscow: MHU, pp. 106-142 (in Russian).
8. Gladun, О. M. (2013). Vplyv holodu u XX stolitti na chyselnist naselennia Ukrainy [The impact of the twentieth century famine on the size of population of Ukraine]. Proceeding from The famine in Ukraine in the first half of the twentieth century: causes and consequences (1921-1923, 1932-1933, 1946-1947) T3: Mizhnarodna naukova konferentsiia (20-21 lystopada 2013 roku) - International Scientific Conference (pp. 243-248). Kyiv: Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, Institute of History of Ukraine of the NAS of Ukraine, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, National University of “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy” (in Ukrainian).
9. Rudnytskyi, O., Levchuk, N.. Wolowyna, O., Shevchuk, P, & Kovbasiuk, A. (2013). Demography of a man-made human catastrophe: the case of massive famine in Ukraine 1932-1933. Canadian Studies in Population, 42 (1-2), pp. 53-80 (in English).
10. Rudnytskyi, О. P, & Savchuk, A. B. (2013). Holod 1932-1933 rokiv v Ukraini u demohrafichonomu Vymiri [The 1932-1933 famine in Ukraine in the demographic dimensions]. Proceeding from The famine in Ukraine in the first half of the twentieth century: causes and consequences (1921-1923, 1932-1933, 1946-1947) T3: Mizhnarodna naukova konferentsiia (20-21 lystopada 2013 roku) - International Scientific Con ference (pp. 281-288). Kyiv: Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, Institute of History of Ukraine of the NAS of Ukraine, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, National University of “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy” (in Ukrainian).
11. Shevchuk, P. Ye. (2013). Metodychni pidkhody do obchyslennia demohrafichnykh utrat pid chas holodu 1932-1933 [Methodological approaches to the calculation of demographic losses during the famine 1932-1933] Proceeding from The famine in Ukraine in the first half of the twentieth century: causes and consequences (1921-1923,1932-1933,1946-1947) T3: Mizhnarodna naukova kon ferentsiia (20-21 lystopada 2013 roku) - International Scientific Con ference (pp. 289-293). Kyiv: Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, Institute of History of Ukraine of the NAS of Ukraine, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, National University of “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy” (in Ukrainian).
12. Report on the human rights situation in Ukraine 16 August to 15 November 2015. Retrieved from http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/12thOHCHRreportUkraine.doc (in English)
13. Ofitsiinyi sait Derzhavnoi Sluzhby Statystyky Ukrainy [The official website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine]. Retrieved from http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ (in Ukrainian).
14. Naselenie. Ofitsialnyi sait territorialnogo organa Federalnoi sluzhby gosudarstvennoi statistiki po Respublike Krym [Population. Official website of the territorial body of the Federal Service for State Statistics in Republic of Crimea]. Retrieved from http://crimea.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_ts/crimea/ru/ statistics/population/ (in Russian).
2. Kulchytskyi, S. & Maksudov, S. (1991). Vtraty naselennia Ukrainy vid holodu 1933 r. [Population losses of Ukraine due to the 1933 famine]. Ukrainskyi Istorychnyi Zhurnal - Ukrainian HistoricalJournal, 2, pp. 2-12 (in Ukrainian).
3. Maksudov, S. (1992). Otsinka vtrat naselennia Ukrainy v roky kolektyvizatsii [Estimation of population losses of Ukraine in the years of collectivization]. Philosofska і sotsiolohichna durnka - Philosophical and sociological thought, 4, pp. 118-131. (in Ukrainian).
4. Konkvest, R. (1993). Zhnyva skorboty. Radianska kolektyvizatsiia і holodomor [The Harvest of Sorrow: Soviet Collectivisation and the Terror-Famine]. Kyiv: Lybid (in Ukrainian).
5. Mesle, E, Vallin, J., Shkolnikov, V, Pyroshkov, S., & Adamets, S. (2008). Smertnist taprychyny smerti v Ukraini и XXstolitti [Mortality and deaths by causes in Ukraine on XX century]. Kyiv: Vydavnychyi dim “Stylos” (in Ukrainian).
6. Andreev, E. M., Bohoiavlenskii, D. D., Vishnevskii, A. H., Zakharov, S. V, & Kharkova, T. L. (2006). Demohrafycheskye katastrofy XX veka. [Demographics catastrophes of XX century]. Dernohrafycheskaia modernyzatsyia Rossii, 1900-2000 [Demographic modernization of Russia, 1900-2000]. A. H.Vishnevskii (Ed.). Moscow: Novoe izdatelstvo. Pp. 339- 447 (in Russian).
7. Denysenko, M. (2008). Demohrafycheskii kryzys v SSSR v pervoi polovine 1930-kh hodov: otsenky poter i problemy izucheniia [Demographic crisis in USSR during the first part of f930 years: estimations of losses and the problems of studies]. Istoricheskaia demohrafiia: Sb. Statei - Historical demography: Collected papers. Moscow: MHU, pp. 106-142 (in Russian).
8. Gladun, О. M. (2013). Vplyv holodu u XX stolitti na chyselnist naselennia Ukrainy [The impact of the twentieth century famine on the size of population of Ukraine]. Proceeding from The famine in Ukraine in the first half of the twentieth century: causes and consequences (1921-1923, 1932-1933, 1946-1947) T3: Mizhnarodna naukova konferentsiia (20-21 lystopada 2013 roku) - International Scientific Conference (pp. 243-248). Kyiv: Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, Institute of History of Ukraine of the NAS of Ukraine, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, National University of “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy” (in Ukrainian).
9. Rudnytskyi, O., Levchuk, N.. Wolowyna, O., Shevchuk, P, & Kovbasiuk, A. (2013). Demography of a man-made human catastrophe: the case of massive famine in Ukraine 1932-1933. Canadian Studies in Population, 42 (1-2), pp. 53-80 (in English).
10. Rudnytskyi, О. P, & Savchuk, A. B. (2013). Holod 1932-1933 rokiv v Ukraini u demohrafichonomu Vymiri [The 1932-1933 famine in Ukraine in the demographic dimensions]. Proceeding from The famine in Ukraine in the first half of the twentieth century: causes and consequences (1921-1923, 1932-1933, 1946-1947) T3: Mizhnarodna naukova konferentsiia (20-21 lystopada 2013 roku) - International Scientific Con ference (pp. 281-288). Kyiv: Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, Institute of History of Ukraine of the NAS of Ukraine, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, National University of “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy” (in Ukrainian).
11. Shevchuk, P. Ye. (2013). Metodychni pidkhody do obchyslennia demohrafichnykh utrat pid chas holodu 1932-1933 [Methodological approaches to the calculation of demographic losses during the famine 1932-1933] Proceeding from The famine in Ukraine in the first half of the twentieth century: causes and consequences (1921-1923,1932-1933,1946-1947) T3: Mizhnarodna naukova kon ferentsiia (20-21 lystopada 2013 roku) - International Scientific Con ference (pp. 289-293). Kyiv: Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, Institute of History of Ukraine of the NAS of Ukraine, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, National University of “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy” (in Ukrainian).
12. Report on the human rights situation in Ukraine 16 August to 15 November 2015. Retrieved from http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/12thOHCHRreportUkraine.doc (in English)
13. Ofitsiinyi sait Derzhavnoi Sluzhby Statystyky Ukrainy [The official website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine]. Retrieved from http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ (in Ukrainian).
14. Naselenie. Ofitsialnyi sait territorialnogo organa Federalnoi sluzhby gosudarstvennoi statistiki po Respublike Krym [Population. Official website of the territorial body of the Federal Service for State Statistics in Republic of Crimea]. Retrieved from http://crimea.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_ts/crimea/ru/ statistics/population/ (in Russian).
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Опубліковано
2016-03-20
Як цитувати
Palian Z. О. (2016). Статистичне оцінювання сучасних демографічних втрат в Україні. Статистика України, (1(72), 34–41. вилучено із https://su-journal.com.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/62
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