Modeling and Analysis of the Public Procurement Process

Abstract

EPublic procurement, being a powerful instrument of macroeconomic regulation and a means to prevent crisis tendencies in the economy and secure economic growth, is a form of market activity of the government. The considerably extended range of econometric problems allows for scientifically substantiated modeling and forecasting of many economic processes that can be interpreted mathematically as conventional random processes. Their modeling can use the advanced mathematical tools, information and communication technologies, enabling for processing large scopes of information and constructing mathematical models of optimal (but not preset) complexity.

The study contains analysis of applied aspects of modeling and forecasting of econometric problems related with management of public procurement. Its purpose is to apply the inductive method of mathematical models self-organization to the public procurement process.

The method for group accounting of the argument is used to derive correlations of the level of public procurement auctions competitiveness with the total amount of government funds (factor 1), the structure of auctions by value and volume (factor 2). The results show the existence of high stochastic correlations. The derived model can also be used for forecasting purposes.