Statistical Modeling of the Ecological Risks as a Factor of the Ecological Safety
In modern conditions, the priority of Ukraine’s national interests is to ensure environmentally safe living conditions of society, as well as the preservation and restoration of the natural environment, increasing requirements for environmental safety. The purpose of this article is the statistical modelling of environmental risks to determine the direction of justification of management decisions on environmental safety. This necessitates the implementation of the effective methods of environmental safety regulation, assessment and monitoring of environmental risk. The author clarifies the definition of environmental safety as a set of conditions and processes that provide all vital human needs and do not provide for the deterioration of the future generations living conditions in terms of economic and environmental balance to achieve sustainable economic development. As an object of statistical research, environmental safety is a component of national security, which reflects the quantitative parameters of the environmental pollution risks.
The environmental risks’ modelling is performed by using trend models in the article. The difference between the real levels of air and water resources pollution, as well as the generation of hazardous waste of I-III classes and their theoretical values calculated by the model, assesses the pollution risk of the corresponding environmental resource. The specific cost of air pollution, water bodies, and hazardous waste is defined as the ratio of the amount of environmental payments of the last year to the amount of actual pollution of the same year, that is environmental payments per 1 unit of pollution. Further assessment of the risk cost is proposed to be defined as the product of the calculated deviations excess proportion and the specific cost of pollution by types. For Ukraine today the most acute problems are pollution of water resources, as well as the formation of hazardous waste, much lower than air pollution. The obtained results allow drawing a conclusion about the inefficiency of the current payment system for environmental pollution and compensation for damage, which requires an increase in capital investment in environmental equipment, increasing fines for non-compliance with pollution standards.
Zghurovskyi, M. Z. (2010). Analiz staloho rozvytku – hlobalnyi i rehionalnyi konteksty [Analysis of sustainable development – global and regional contexts]. Kyiv: NTUU «KPI». Ukraina v indykatorakh staloho rozvytku - Ukraine in the indicators of sustainable development [in Ukraine].
Balatskyi, O. F., Petrushenko, M. M., & Shevchenko, H. M. (2012). Konfliktna skladova systemy sotsiopryrodnykh zviazkiv u ekonomichnii sferi vzaiemovidnosyn [Conflict component of the system of socio-natural relations in the economic sphere of relations]. Mekhanizm rehuliuvannia ekonomiky –- Mechanism of Economic Regulation, 2. 140–152 [in Ukraine].
Romashchenko, M. I., Khvesyk, M. A., & Mykhailov, Yu. O. (2015). Vodna stratehiia Ukrainy na period do 2025 roku (naukovi osnovy) [Water strategy of Ukraine up to 2025 (scientific basis)]. iwpim.com.ua. Retrieved from http://iwpim.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/11_03_2015.pdf [in Ukraine].
Vprovadzhennia v Ukraini yevropeiskoi iierarkhii upravlinnia pobutovymy vidkhodamy [Introduction of the European hierarchy of household waste management in Ukraine]. (2018). www.minregion.gov.ua. Retrieved from http://www.minregion.gov.ua/napryamkidiyalnosti/zhkh/terretory/vprovadzhennya-v-ukrayini-yevropeyskoyi-iyerarhiyi-upravlinnya-pobutovimi-vidhodami/ [in Ukraine].
Danylov-Danylian, V. Y. (2000). Ekolohicheskiy vyzov i ustoichivoe razvitie [Environmental challenge and sustainable development]. Moscow: Prohress-tradytsyia [in Russian].
Pro Osnovni zasady (stratehiiu) derzhavnoi ekolohichnoi polityky Ukrainy na period do 2030 roku: Zakon Ukrainy vid 28.02.2019 No 2697-VIII [On the Basic Principles (Strategy) of the State Environmental Policy of Ukraine until 2030. Law of Ukraine as of February 28. 2019]. zakon.rada.gov.ua. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2697-19 [in Ukraine].
Kucherenko, V. R., Karpov, V. A., & Karpov, A. V. (2011). Ekonomichnyi ryzyk ta metody yoho vymiriuvannia [Economic risk and methods of its measurement]. Odessa [in Ukraine].
Navkolyshnie pryrodne seredovyshche / Ekonomichna statystyka / Statystychna informatsiia. Ofitsiinyi vebsait Derzhavnoi sluzhby statystyky Ukrainy [Environment / Economic Statistics / Statistical Information. Official website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine]. www.ukrstat.gov.ua. Retrieved from http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukraine].
Podhornyi, A. Z., Mylashko, O. H., Kyrsho, S. M., & Shylofost, N. M. (2012). Statystyka [Statistics]. Odessa: Atlant [in Ukraine].
Semenova, K. D. (2013). Obhruntuvannia hospodarskykh rishen ta otsiniuvannia ryzykiv. [Substantiation of business decisions and risk assessment]. Odessa: ONEU [in Ukraine].
Khylko, M. I. (2014). Ekolohizatsiia polityky [Environmental policy]. Kyiv: VADEKS [in Ukraine].
Yatsenko, L. D. (2014). Ekolohichnyi skladnyk natsionalnoi bezpeky: osnovni pokaznyky ta sposoby yikh dosiahnennia [Environmental component of national security: main indicators and ways to achieve them]. Kyiv: NISD [in Ukraine].
Abstract views: 29 PDF Downloads: 20