Statistical Analysis of the External Debt of Ukraine by Constructing a Cognitive Chart

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to construct a cognitive map of the key factors of the external debt of Ukraine and to measure the impact of socio-economic indicators on the external debt of Ukraine by methods applied for statistical analyses of macroeconomic systems, such correlation method, theory of graphs, cognitive method, SWOT-analysis, PEST-analysis. The cognitive method is proposed as the most appropriate for modeling of complex by weakly formalized systems, which allowed for presenting the results in form of graph.

The impact of the external debt components (loans of the general government, loans of monetary regulation bodies, loans of banks, loans of other sectors, inter-firm loans) on the external debt of Ukraine is measured for the year of 2013 by correlation method. The impact of the four groups of factors (political, social, economic, others) on the external debt of Ukraine are measured for the year of 2013 by PEST-analysis, SWOT-analysis, expert review and correlation method. The following indicators are identified by PEST-analysis and SWOT-analysis: change in legal framework; change in discount rate; change in currency rate; GDP dynamics; inflation; employment; change in basic values; impact of mass media on public mentality; birth rate; change in the life standards of the Ukrainian population; use of new technologies; cross-sectoral impact of developments; intellectual property protection; self-regulation of economic factors; self-regulation within the foreign debt; political factors; economic factors; social factors; technological factors. The expert review excluded indicators of change is basic values, used of new technologies and intellectual property protection. The relationship of the above indicators is measured by correlation method.

The result of the study is as follows: the strongest impact on the foreign debt of Ukraine is made by political and economic factors, and loans of general government, whereas the weakest impact is made by social factors and loans of monetary regulation bodies.