Statistical Study of Factors Influence on Forming of Results of External Independent Evaluation
Statistical study of correlations between socio-economic measures, their forecasting and simulation has important analytical function in statistical science, because enhanced industrial capacities is an important factor for solution of socio-economic problems, bridging regional gaps, growth of the national economy’s competitiveness, and improvement of education quality.
The purpose of the article is to construct the method for factor analysis of results of external independent evaluation in Ukrainian regions in 2014/15 academic year by use of statistical regression equations. This method is used in solving direct and inverse statistical problems, to find proportions of change in factor variables and dependent variable. The direct problem is finding the dependent variable when a factor variable changes by 1 or by another standard value. Multiple linear regression is used to find the share of factors included in the calculation in the dependent variable. It is found that solution of the direct statistical problem can be interpreted by one-factor models, when one of the studied factors included in the calculation has the largest significance, that is, when its impact on the dependent variable has the major share. In cases when neither of the factors is of large significance for the dependent variable, solution of the direct statistical problem can be interpreted only by multiple regression model.
The problems set according to the purpose of the study are solved by use of software “Method of statistical regression equations”. Input data are data on external independent evaluation of high school pupils in Ukrainian language and mathematics, by Ukrainian region, 2014/15 academic year; the pupils are included passing evaluation with 183.5-200.0 scores. Calculations are made by the above methodology adapted to the operation specifics of the education sector.
2. Zahalnoosvitni navchalni zaklady Ukrainy na pochatok 2014/15 navchalnoho roku Statystychnyi biuleten [Secondary schools of Ukraine at the beginning of the 2014/15 academic year. Statistical bulletin ]. Kyiv: State Statistics Service of Ukraine [in Ukrainian ].
3. Kulynych, O. I., & Kulynych, R. O. (2015). Teoriia statystyky fTheory of Statistics]. (7nd ed.). Kyiv: Znannia [in Ukrainian ].
4. Metod statystychnykh rivnian zalezhnostei. Personalnyi sait R. O. Kulynycha [Method of statistical equations of dependencies. Personal site of Kulynych, R. O.]. kulynych.in.ua. Retrieved 4 July 2016 from http://www.kulynych.in.ua/software-statistical-methods [in Ukrainian ].
5. Kulynych, R. O. (2008). Statystychnimetodyanalizuvzaiemozviazkupokaznykivsotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku [Statistical methods for analysis of dependences of socio-economic development indicators]. Kyiv: Format [in Ukrainian ].
6. Kulynych, R. O. (2007). Statystychna otsinka chynnykiv sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku [Statistical evaluation of factors of socio-economic development]. Kyiv: Znannia [in Ukrainian ].
7. Mantsurov, I. G. (2006). Statystyka ekonomichnoho zrostannia ta konkurentospro-mozhnosti krainy [Statistic of economic growth and competitiveness of the country]. Kyiv: KNEU [in Ukrainian ].
8. Natsionalni rakhunky osvity Ukrainy u 2014 rotsi. Statystychnyi biuleten [National Accounts of Education of Ukraine in 2014. Statistical bulletin ]. Kyiv: State Statistics Service of Ukraine [in Ukrainian ].
9. Osaulenko, O. H. (2008). Natsionalna statystychna systerna: stratehichne planuvannia, metodolohiia ta orhanizatsiia [The national statistical system: strategic planning, methodology and organization]. Kyiv: Informatsiino-analitychne ahentstvo [in Ukrainian ].
10. Ofitsiinyi sait Derzhavnoi sluzhby statystyky Ukrainy [The official website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine ]. ukrstat.gov.ua. Retrieved 4 July 2016 from http://ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian ].
11. Ofitsiinyi sail Ukrainskoho tsentru otsiniuvannia yakosti osvity [Official website of the Ukrainian Center for Educational Quality Assessment ]. testportal.gov.ua. Retrieved 4 July 2016 from http://testportal. gov.ua/ http://testportal.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian ].
12. Parfentseva, N. O. (2007). Statystyka rynkiv [Statistics of Markets ]. Kyiv: Informatsiino-analitychne ahentstvo [in Ukrainian ].
Abstract views: 39 PDF Downloads: 26